Dec. 13, 2021 Edition

 

“Her intuition was her favorite superpower.” – Jess Keys; fashion blogger

Last month, we stressed the importance of keeping an open mind and digging a little deeper when we see the opportunity.  This strategy typically points us in the right direction, but sometimes we are left to primarily follow our intuition.  Most folks would probably admit that their gut feel has led them down more than one prosperous path (more on this later).

Like usual, the questions from area farm producers have been numerous.  Therefore, I’ll try to hit the most common topics in brief fashion and in no particular order: fertilizer price concerns, sunflower yields, weather outlook, and corn diseases.

 

Fertilizer Prices Continue Upward

A few years back, a large farm manager in the region told me, “I’m going to wait until the end of June or even July 1^st to purchase and apply urea for the corn.  Prices should come down by then!”  He was right, unfortunately!  Fertilizer prices did come down after the spring rush, but the unfortunate part was that so much yield potential was lost on his corn crop that any savings in fertilizer was more than off-set with lower productivity.

Obviously, we’re not losing any yield potential at this time of year by waiting to see what develops for fertilizer prices.  However, one should think about what parameters will have to change and change significantly enough to get the desired outcome of downward fertilizer price movement by spring.  As you begin to analyze infrastructure capabilities, trucking logistics, importing demands, shipping parameters, etc., it becomes a tangled web to try and accurately predict how the 2022 year my unfold in regard to ag fertilizer availability and price. 

Ag-commodity production, in some regard, is a game of hunches and we need to have the confidence to follow our hunches and doing all we can to insure input supplies for the upcoming season.

https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2021/11/world-fertilizer-prices-continue-to-soar... https://news.agropages.com/News/NewsDetail---41167.htm

 

Corn Disease - Tar Spot

The primary corn disease in our area is actually a bacteria – Goss’s Wilt.  A couple years ago, I wrote about Tar Spot in corn and a guy came-up to me shortly afterward and playfully razzed me about wasting space and time writing about a crop disease that we may never see during his career in northern Minnesota.  However, if the fungal disease keeps progressing as quickly as it has over the past couple seasons, we could be seeing signs in our local fields by the middle to end of this decade.  The two maps show Tar Spot spread from 2019 to 2021.  Most likely, that fellow mentioned above has time to consider his retirement plan!

Unlike Goss’s Wilt, Tar Spot does have some susceptibility to fungicides, but they seem inconsistent in testing.  Hopefully, over the next 5-8 years the industry will develop more accurate screening for hybrid genetic screening of Tar Spot tolerances as well as find/develop adequate fungicide protocols for scouting and efficacy.  Below are some of the key bullet-points of Tar Spot:

·         In 2018, tar spot (Phyllachora maydis) established itself as a foliar fungus of economic concern for corn production in the Midwest, with severe outbreaks affecting corn yield in several states – up to 40 bu/ac yield loss in certain locations

·         Tar Spot gets its name from the fungal fruiting bodies it produces on corn leaves that look like spots of tar, developing black oval or circular lesions on the corn leaf

·         Tar Spot is favored by cool temperatures (60-70 ºF), high relative humidity (>75%), frequent cloudy days, and 7+ hours of dew at night, and overwinters on residue

·         Hybrid selection should be a primary consideration in managing for tar spot.  Commercial corn hybrids vary widely in their susceptibility

https://www.pioneer.com/us/agronomy/diseases-tar-spot.html https://corteva.showpad.biz/webapp2/results?query=tar&scope=content... https://corteva.showpad.biz/webapp2/content/channels/...

 

Corn Residue Breakdown

One of the big challenges in our northern latitudes with corn production is managing the high volume of corn residue after harvest.  Iowa State University Extension summarized an excellent three-year study looking at management practices that could most likely influence the rate of corn residue breakdown or decomposition – tillage and applied nitrogen.  A few interesting tidbits were determined:

·         The tillage systems analyzed were deep tillage, strip-tillage, and no-till.  There was also analysis of Bt corn hybrids versus non-Bt hybrids across tillage treatments as well (however, no corn borer infestation numbers were mentioned)

·         Residue decomposition was measured by CO₂-C release for the tillage/Bt portion of the experiment

·         There were no significant differences in the amount of CO₂-C released based on tillage system or Bt presence

·         Nitrogen as 32% UAN was applied at three different rates – 0, 30, and 60 lbs N/ac – to corn residue immediately after harvest

·         Pre-measured amounts of residue were placed in nylon mesh bags prior to the nitrogen applications for evaluation over the next 12 months with measurements taken every three months

·         Results highlighted the fact that it takes temperature as well as soil moisture to stimulate microbial activity for the breakdown of crop residue.  Only after the nine-month evaluation did the nitrogen treatments begin to differentiate with the higher nitrogen rate revealing higher residue breakdown rates – albeit below the statistical evaluation criteria (treatments were not statistically different even at the 12-month time frame).

https://crops.extension.iastate.edu/cropnews/2019/11/corn-residue-breakdown...tillage-and-n...

 

Sunflower Update

The National Sunflower Association estimates the sunflower harvest at over 95% complete across the country and 96% in North Dakota as of Nov. 29^th.  The quality of this season’s US crop is a tad better than the prior year as outlined in the below table.  For the Northern Plains region, both oil content and test weight have improved year over year while moisture content and foreign material have declined.

In mid-October, the USDA estimated the yield of the 2021 sunflower crop at 1,554 lbs/ac nationwide; which is not bad considering the western third of the US along with the Dakota’s and Minnesota were all experiencing some level of significant drought stress.  The overall production of US sunflowers was 1.9 billion lbs. in 2021, or about 64% of the 2020 record production of almost 3.0 billion lbs.  The primary factor between the two years was 400k less acres planted across the nation in 2021 – which is very significant in a crop that only generates 1.4 to 1.5 mil acres planted per year for a historical average.

 

Ritchison Weather Forecast for the 2022 Season

Daryl Ritchison, as the NDSU Director of NDAWN stations, provided a thorough evaluation of his weather network and an outlook for the 2022 cropping season.  Below are his highlights from a presentation to the Prairie Grains Conference in Grand Forks (Dec. 9, 2021).

·         NDAWN’s 30 year normal did update on January 1^st of 2021.  The 30-year benchmark will be reflected within NDAWN’s reports as the period between Jan 1^st, 1991 through to Dec. 31^st, 2020 – resulting in a cooler and wetter 30-year period then the prior evaluation period of 1981-2010

·         NDAWN’s goal is to provide weather technology to offset ag production risk.  Mr. Ritchison gave the following quote: “You don’t get points for predicting rain, you get points for building arks.” – Lou Gerstner; American businessman.  For example, can we use weather data predictions to outline farm activity – what upcoming 12-hour period will be most beneficial for fungicide application for maximum effectiveness against a certain pest?

·         A regional weather outlook pattern will be developing for the 2020 decade where we’ll have 70% chance of below average precipitation during the decade (7 out of 10 years) - Fargo & Grand Forks (70%); 80% chance in Bismarck; 75% chance in the Twin Cities

·         Therefore, predictions for the 2022 growing season will be slightly drier than average for the year and warmer than average overall (but not as warm as 2021 – which was a very warm and long growing season)

·         Good to excess soil moisture to start the season

·         Small to moderate flooding (excess spring water in typical places)

·         Below average rain in July and August with warm to hot conditions

·         Less heat units in 2022 than 2021; no prediction on frost events or upcoming winter snowfall

·         An interesting historical weather note – “Hot wind, leaves and shrubbery cooked” - Fargo Forum headline from July 1936; Steele, ND after a 121F temperature day and a good wind from the northwest (highest temperature ever recorded in North Dakota).