October 8th, 2021 Edition

 

“Statistics are like a bikini.  What they reveal is interesting, but what they hide is vital!” – Aaron Levenstein former Business Professor at Baruch College

I’ve found myself in the buddy-seat of several combines this autumn and as usual, the discussion is diverse while we are entertained by the crop in the field and the bushels on the yield monitor.  With the corn grain being consistently dry this year, everyone’s focus is on the bushels.  Even though 3-4% points of moisture are not huge this particular year, the grain moisture content still reveals a significant part of the story when comparing two hybrids.  More on this later…

Over the past couple weeks, the questions from area farm producers have been numerous.  Therefore, I’ll try to hit the most common topics in brief fashion: harvest progress, soybean and corn yield losses due to dry grain, product comparisons, and an outlook on crop inputs for 2022.

 

Corn Harvest Update

Despite not having a killing frost in September or even the first week of October, I’ll choose to forgo a GDD map of the region.  We’ve had plenty of GDD’s to get the corn to physiological maturity and have already achieved significant grain drydown.  Reports of the corn grain moisture range from as low as 12-13% currently to the low 20%.  With above average air temps, propane costs have been minimal so far this autumn to dry corn.  I’d estimate the corn harvest across the region at about 25-35% complete.

Late season corn plant health remains fairly good overall.  There is a rare field or two with some stalk lodging concerns, but overall, the late season rains have helped maintain some staygreen in the corn plants along with above average stalk quality.  Even though corn ear retention has been a concern for this harvest, we have not had significant wind events to exasperate the issue.  The weather forecast looks to be changing for the upcoming weekend and into next week with cooler temperatures and precipitation entering the equation.  Hopefully, the wind doesn’t get too wild and the rain volume is manageable.

The bigger issue is the fast dry-down rates in the corn crop.  Just how many bushels are we losing when the corn gets down to 12% moisture? 

Normally, we utilize the following “Moisture Shrink Factor” table to determine grain loss due to drying with grain content above the trading target of 15.5% moisture content.  Under this example at 19% harvested grain moisture content (3.5 pts above target), a farmer will lose 4.14 percent of each bushel.  The table can also be used when conditions are ideal for excessive in-the-field drying.  The math calculates to a slightly different  total when 3.5 points under target.  Therefore, a field yielding 100 bu/ac at 12% would have been yielding 104 bu/ac if the combine arrived when the grain was 15.5% moisture content - all other factors being equal (see chart and table).

One producer told me this week, that since it’s only the first week of October, he should wait on the corn to dry-down further from 21%.  However, realizing that harvest losses will increase as the corn becomes drier, there is probably only minimal financial advantage (at best) to waiting – especially when the weather is so nice for field activity and grain drying efficiencies.

Many of our Pioneer sales agents have a grain moisture meter in their pick-up truck.  Give them a holler and ask where the driest Pioneer corn is on the farm.  They’d love to help point you in the proper direction to minimize loss and improve profit.

https://www.pioneer.com/us/agronomy/moisture_shrink.html

 

Soybean Harvest

Soybean harvest is nearing complete with only a scattering of acres remaining to be harvested.  Unfortunately, with the warm and dry conditions, many soybeans were harvested at very dry grain moisture content.  As the soybean grain moisture content decreases, the plant naturally becomes more prone to shattering as well and thus further losses entail.  There isn’t much we can do about it – especially if the crop has been delivered to the local elevator.  

Regardless, here is a nice table outlining soybean harvest losses due to moisture alone.

https://cropwatch.unl.edu/harvest-soybeans-13-moisture

 

 

Product Comparisons

Many hybrid comparisons and other agronomic trials were planted this spring and despite the very drought-stricken conditions, we are still interested in seeing the culminating data on these trials.  With the commonality of scales in grain carts, load cells in combine hoppers, or at minimum yield monitors in the combine cab, its’ fairly easy to collect the data.  However, we must realize a few things in our analysis of the comparisons:

·       * Corn hybrid comparisons are best when the relative maturity (RM) difference between the products are only 2-3 RM.  We can easily judge this by grain moisture content.  For corn, every 0.5% of grain moisture is one RM.  Therefore, if there is a 3.5 points of moisture difference between two products, in reality it’s 7 RM difference (i.e. it’s like comparing an 82 CRM hybrid versus an 89 CRM hybrid despite them both being labeled as an “84 day” product)

·        * In soybeans, every RM is about 0.3% of moisture.  Therefore, an 0.5 RM Group 0 soybean variety should only be 0.9 points wetter than an 0.2 RM Group 0 soybean variety.  Moisture differences between two products that are greater than 1.0% points should be scrutinized closely and more data sought

       * With this season’s late rain events, the longer season hybrids or varieties are performing better.  As the RM difference widens, the yield performance this year can be dramatically enlarged

·         * One trial location only tells part of the story.  The statisticians say if you are comparing two corn hybrids in a single 170-180 bu/ac environment, it will take a difference of 30 bu/ac between the two hybrids to have 95% confidence that the winning comparison product is the overall better product under the conditions endured.  The same is true for an agronomic trail – fertility, tillage, fungicide, etc.

·         * Every year is a different set of weather.  The best decisions are made by evaluating results in various locations and various environments (seasons) to greatly improve confidence.

 

Ag-Inputs for 2022

DTN had a good article this week about planning for the 2022 agricultural production season.  We are all starting to sense that crop input products like glyphosate, glufosinate, and growth regulator herbicides along with fertilizer will be in short supply due to logistical supply concerns.  Our only solution today to try and prepare adequately for next spring is to continue to lean on the relationships with ag-retailers to get product in hand.  Storing ag-input products over the winter on the farm is not our customary way of conducting business, but in order to ensure some success for the upcoming season we need to keep all our options on the table.

We all know labor is key on the farm as well.  Even though you may be sitting well on your farm for labor, will the custom fertilizer spreader, pesticide provider, and herbicide applicator be as prepared?

The following DTN article describes how the supply situation has unfolded over the past couple seasons, and forecasts continued tight supplies for another couple years.  https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2021/09/22/ag-chem-supplies-four-things-know