Nov. 29, 2022 Edition

 

"I ain't getting on no damn time machine!" - Marvin Barnes, ABA basketball player 1974-'76

In the early to mid-1970’s the ABA was much more of a wild and carefree league compared to the NBA, and it’s where Marvin Barnes prospered with the St. Louis Spirits averaging 24 points and 13.5 rebounds per game during his first two all-star seasons of professional basketball.  Off the court, Marvin indulged in the 70’s lifestyle, and on this particular day, upon evaluation of his plane ticket – which was set to depart from Louisville, KY (8 am EST) four minutes after he was scheduled to land in St. Louis (7:56 am, albeit in the Central time zone) – Mr. Barnes was convinced he had valid concerns about his morning travel adventure.  I’m not sure if Marvin was just apprehensive towards flying, but in the end, he decided to implement some risk management and rent a car!

We all have our own tolerance for risk in today’s business world, and we tend to be rewarded for planning ahead and having sound communication with our partners.  Good luck to you this winter on your planning sessions and I’ll try to provide some risk management thoughts in this newsletter on a monthly interval.

 

Weather

Well, the winter season is starting a bit early in our neck of the woods as the ground is white and the road ditches are becoming full of snowmobile tracks.  For all practical purposes, the field work has ended for the 2022 season, and we look forward to what the winter snowpack and spring rains may entail. 

For what it’s worth, the National Weather Service does publish their three-month outlooks, and we are forecasted to have a winter season that is shaping-up to be below average in temperatures and above average in precipitation.  Once spring starts to arrive, the NWS model begins to shift to forecasts of average temperatures and average precipitation through mid-summer. 

Most areas of our region do have room in the soil profile to hold some spring moisture.  Hopefully, this will give us a shot for a timely start to the growing season and smelling those aromatic diesel fumes – well, at least it can’t get much worse/later than last spring.  I tried to find some data on spring farming start dates for North Dakota, but to no avail.  I would think it would be highly rare to have back-to-back seasons with significantly late spring starts to the farming activities.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1

 

Yield Monitor vs Weigh Wagon

Every farmer loves their yield monitor data, and it does bring insight to the table for farm managers - the question is just how valuable is this data.  Unfortunately, the truth is that this data can be inaccurate even though a monitor calibration may have just been conducted.  Usually someone says, “Yeah, the yield monitor is off a bit, but it’s off the same amount for each hybrid”.  Well, that is simply not true, and I have a set of data here to prove it!

Yield monitor sensors vary in how they interpret grain flow volume from hybrid to hybrid based on grain characteristics (i.e. kernel test weight, kernel size, moisture content, and seed coat differences).  The below data from a calibrated yield monitor can show large differences from hybrid to hybrid versus a scale weigh.  The difference between the two measurements (scale vs monitor) varied between -6.4 bu/ac to +21.3 bu/ac depending on the hybrid.  This data set comes from a north-central Iowa yield trial with hybrids ranging from 100 to 116 RM.

If your farm highly values yield monitor data, invest in a scale for the grain cart (if not already done) and take a bit of time to calibrate the combine monitor(s) for each hybrid being harvested.  If you have a split planter comparison across the field with two different hybrids, make sure to get a side-by-side weigh for an accurate comparison.  It’s great to have data to help make informed decisions, but if the data is not accurate, then the follow-up decisions could be more harmful than helpful.

For example, let’s assume this Pioneer customer who planted the plot in Iowa, now has a field across the road with a split-planter scenario of P0404AM and P0595AM in alternating strips across the field.  If the farm manager goes off the yield monitor, P0404AM wins the battle by 3 bu/ac.  However, if the same comparison is weighed with a scale, the P0595AM wins by about 6 bu/ac.  With our current high commodity prices, the swing of 9 bu/ac adds up quickly.

 

  

Peking vs PI88788 Against SCN

Speaking of Iowa, another interesting set of field data crossed my desk this month as one of our fellow Pioneer Field Agronomists from the northwestern part of their state conducted some research on the soybean cyst nematode (SCN) pest and the effectiveness of SCN resistant genetics.  Soybean varieties with Peking SCN genetic tolerance were planted side-by-side varieties with PI88788 SCN genetics in locations known to have SCN pressure.  Soil samples were then taken in both July and October and analyzed for SCN presence to determine the activity and reproduction ability of the SCN populations under each different SCN genetic source.

For a concise summary, soybean varieties with Peking genetics decreased SCN egg counts while the SCN pest was able to reproduce at most locations on the PI88788 soybean genetics (see graph below).

 

Unfortunately, in today’s soybean market there are not very many varieties that offer Peking SCN resistance in the Group 00, Group 0 or Group 1 maturity range.  In our Pioneer seed catalog for the 2023 season, we only have one single variety out of 22 total varieties in the Group 00 and Group 0 combined maturity ranges with Peking SCN resistance.  For the Group 1 zone, we have a few more options with 4 out of 20 varieties with Peking. 

However, there is some good news on the horizon.  For this year’s newly advanced soybean varieties from Pioneer (limited volume for 2023 planting), there are two varieties in the Group 0 zone with Peking, and the Corteva breeding program is looking to bring forward a much higher percentage of Peking SCN varieties along with researching new SCN resistant genetic sources for the future.

 

New Post-Emerge Corn Herbicide from Corteva

For the 2023 growing season, Corteva Agri-Sciences will bring to market a new post-emerge herbicide mix under the trade name of Kyro™.  The specified pre-mix will include acetochlor (Harness™/Surpass™), clopyralid (Stinger™), and topramezone (Armezon®) for broadleaf knockdown of key resistant weed species plus soil residual.  Application timing of Kyro™ herbicide will be up to 24” tall corn – which will provide a wide window to applicators.  Initial indications reveal the herbicide will have a 10.5 month crop rotation restriction to sugarbeets and 18 months to dry beans.

Kyro™ is forecasted to partner nicely with Corteva’s pre-emerge corn product Resicore™ as a one-two punch for season long control of tough weeds like waterhemp, common ragweed and palmer amaranth.  As you’re looking to spend Corteva TruChoice dollars this winter while placing a weed control strategy together, consider Kyro™ and/or Resicore™ in those discussions for your farm’s corn acres.

https://www.corteva.us/products-and-solutions/crop-protection/kyro.html

A-Series Enlist-3 Soybeans

Last autumn, Pioneer introduced their next series of soybean genetics with in-house proprietary Enlist-3 variety releases.  These varieties have now endured a growing season of commercial field testing, and we couldn’t be more impressed with the results!  “A-Series” Enlist varieties not only performed agronomically solid in the field with improved genetics for IDC, phytophtora and white mold tolerances versus “T-Series” Enlist, but also with yield. 

In our 2022 field trial testing against other herbicide platforms, “A-Series” Enlist is rising to the top.  If we evaluate varieties based on performance of yield against the plot average (North Dakota and northwest Minnesota region), we can begin to see a nice trend developing – it’s only one year of data so we’ll have to see how robust the data becomes over the next couple seasons.  During the past several years, Pioneer’s Xtend® soybean varieties have made a name for themselves in the local market with many of our customers commenting on both agronomic performance and yield results.  Now that Pioneer’s next round of genetics are hitting the market in the “A-Series” Enlist platform, we strive to be able to continue our agronomic strengths in the field as well as hit that next level yield.  Not only is Pioneer meeting and exceeding our own internal standards, but it looks like Pioneer’s “A-Series” Enlist varieties are off to a nice start against the competition's new herbicide platform as well.